In September 2022, six months after Russia invaded Ukraine and with oil and gas prices around the world soaring, I wrote a piece entitled After Ukraine – the Great Clean Energy Acceleration, predicting that “Things are going to start moving extremely fast. The Great Energy Price Spike is going to give way to the Great Clean Energy Acceleration.”
That turned out to be one of my better predictions – over the four years since the invasion, installations of wind and solar power, sales of EVs and investment in clean energy have all more or less doubled. Even within the U.S., despite the Trump administration’s efforts, strong growth in clean energy has continued.
What the current conflict in the Gulf – in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – is going to do is to provide a further push to global attempts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. We are about to see the Great Clean Energy Acceleration 2.0 – a discontinuity in energy markets as profound as the oil shocks of the 1970s, and one that could bring forward the peak in fossil fuel use and emissions to this side of 2030.
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